May 2, 2019 by WorkCompWire

Boca Raton, FL – NCCI recently announced the release of the Q1 2019 edition of its Quarterly Economics Briefing, which examines the current state of the economy and implications for workers compensation insurance, and is separated into two sections: “Review of Current Conditions” and “Drilling Down”.

Review of Current Conditions
Key takeaways include:

  • Private sector employment increased by 2.6 million jobs in 2018
  • Employment is forecast to grow 1.8% in 2019, slowing to 0.9% in 2020
  • The unemployment rate has held at or below 4.0% since March 2018
  • NCCI expects average weekly wage growth of 3.3% in 2018, increasing to 4.3% in 2019
  • Forecasted medical inflation is revised down, below 2% in 2018 and 2019 but increasing thereafter

Read the NCCI Review of Current Conditions

Drilling Down: The Economic and Workers Compensation Effects of Federal Government Shutdowns
Key takeaways include:

  • During the most recent federal government shutdown from December 2018 to January 2019, 800,000 federal employees were furloughed or worked without pay
  • Federal workers constitute 24.6% of total employment in Washington, DC; more than 4.5% in Maryland, Virginia, Alaska, and Hawaii; and at least 2.5% in eight other states
  • Shutdowns affect private industry and workers compensation by disrupting work under government contracts, interrupting access to government services, and creating uncertainty about more shutdowns in the future
  • The December–January shutdown reduced annualized US gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of 2019 by an estimated 0.2%−0.4%
  • Past federal shutdowns have had only temporary impacts on wage and employment growth, but if more frequent and longer shutdowns come to be expected, the impact on investment and employment growth is likely to become

Read the Drilling Down Brief

Source: NCCI