Boca Raton, FL – NCCI recently announced the release of the Q3 2018 edition of its Quarterly Economics Briefing, which examines the current state of the economy and implications for workers compensation insurance, and is separated into three sections: “Review of Current Conditions”, “Drilling Down”, and “Macroeconomic Insights”.

Review of Current Conditions
Key takeaways include:

  • Employment growth in 2018 is forecast to be slightly above 2017 and growth is expected to decline in 2019. The unemployment rate is holding steady below 4%.
  • Wage growth is expected to increase to 3.6% in 2018 and accelerate in 2019 to 4.5%.
  • Medical inflation is projected to rise above 2% in 2018 and continue rising in 2019.
  • The 10-year Treasury rate is expected to rise to 3.4% by June 2019.

Read the NCCI Review of Current Conditions

Drilling Down: Changing Worker Demographics in the United States
Key takeaways include:

  • Since 2000, labor force growth has come primarily from increases in workers ages 55 and older, while the number of young and prime-age workers has stayed flat
  • The proportion of long-tenured employees is rising because of worker aging
  • Service sectors are expected to continue to drive future employment growth, although the gap in employment growth rates between services and goods-producing sectors has diminished since 2010
  • Women compose about 55% of current and projected net additions to the labor force and have higher educational attainment than men at all ages below 60

Read the Drilling Down Brief

Macroeconomic Insights: Economic Growth Above 4%: Temporary Bump or Future Trend?
Key takeaways include:

  • Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 4.2% annualized rate in the second quarter
  • Quarterly GDP growth rates are more volatile than year-over-year GDP growth rates
  • Most of the second quarter’s GDP growth surge came from consumption spending and exports
  • GDP growth is likely to come in at around 3% for all of 2018 and may go below 3% in 2019
  • Expansion of real GDP is the single most important driver of employment growth

Read the NCCI Macroeconomic Insights Brief

Source: NCCI